Boise State vs. Hawaii: College Football Prediction for Saturday Night Showdown
As the college football season heats up, the No. 17 Boise State Broncos (4-1, 1-0 Mountain West) are set to face off against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-3, 0-1) in a late-night clash on October 12, 2024. The game will take place at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, with kickoff scheduled for 11 p.m. ET and broadcasted on CBS Sports Network.
Current Odds and Betting Lines
Boise State enters the matchup as a significant favorite, opening as a 20.5-point favorite with an over/under set at 59.5 points. The Broncos are listed at -1600 on the moneyline, indicating a 94.1% probability of victory, while Hawaii sits at +900, suggesting a mere 10% chance of pulling off the upset.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | -21 (-110) | -1600 | Over 60.5 (-105) |
| Hawaii | +21 (-115) | +900 | Under 60.5 (-110) |
These odds reflect the confidence oddsmakers have in Boise State, particularly given their impressive performance this season. The Broncos’ only loss came in a narrow 3-point defeat against Oregon, while their four victories have been by an average margin of nearly 27 points.
Boise State’s Dominance
The key to Boise State’s success this season has been the outstanding play of running back Ashton Jeanty. Leading the nation in rushing yards (1,031), rushing touchdowns (16), and yards per carry (10.8), Jeanty has been a force to reckon with. His remarkable performance has drawn comparisons to legendary players like Barry Sanders, and he boasts an astonishing 99.8 PFF grade, the highest ever recorded.
Jeanty’s prop bets are equally impressive, with an over/under of 188.5 rushing yards and an anytime touchdown prop sitting at -3500. Behind Jeanty, quarterback Maddux Madsen has had a solid season, completing 85 of 135 passes for 1,056 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions. However, Madsen’s struggles were evident in the game against Oregon, where he averaged only 3.7 yards per attempt when Jeanty was sidelined.
Despite their offensive prowess, Boise State’s defense has raised some concerns. Ranking 114th in EPA/play allowed and last in explosiveness allowed, the Broncos have shown vulnerabilities, particularly in their secondary. Against Utah State, they surrendered 371 passing yards, highlighting the need for improvement on that side of the ball.
Hawaii’s Competitive Spirit
While Hawaii’s record stands at 2-3, they have shown competitiveness, with close losses to UCLA and San Diego State. The Rainbow Warriors have excelled defensively, ranking 12th in Success Rate and 10th in EPA/play allowed. Their front seven has been particularly effective, ranking 8th in Front 7 Havoc and 33rd in PFF’s Rush Defense grades.
Offensively, Hawaii relies heavily on the passing game under head coach Timmy Chang. Quarterback Brayden Schager has thrown for respectable numbers (124/205, 1,328 yards, 11 touchdowns, 6 interceptions), but his performance has been hampered by a high number of drops from his receiving corps, which leads the nation with 18 drops.
Despite these challenges, Hawaii ranks 51st in Passing Success Rate, and Schager has excelled on intermediate throws, posting a 78.2 PFF grade. Given Boise State’s struggles in pass defense, allowing 8.5 yards per attempt, Schager should find opportunities for big plays.
Hawaii has also shown improvement in finishing drives, ranking 40th in that category, compared to Boise’s 82nd in Finishing Drives allowed. This could be crucial for the Rainbow Warriors as they look to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Prediction and Betting Insights
For this matchup, I lean towards taking Hawaii +21, although I expect Boise State to secure the win. The potential for a look-ahead spot with UNLV on the horizon raises concerns about the Broncos’ focus. While Boise State is a formidable opponent, Hawaii’s defense is capable of making enough stops to keep the game competitive.
Hawaii’s run defense has been impressive, ranking in the top 35 in EPA, Success Rate, and Defensive Line Yards. While they may not completely shut down Jeanty, they can force Madsen to step up and make plays.
On the other side, Schager’s ability to exploit Boise’s porous secondary could lead to success for the Rainbow Warriors. Additionally, Hawaii holds a special teams advantage, ranking 50th in PFF Special Teams compared to Boise’s 103rd.
Ultimately, while Boise State’s talent edge is significant, I predict a final score of around 45-27 in favor of the Broncos. However, taking the points with Hawaii, who has a strong track record of covering the spread in conference games, presents a compelling betting opportunity. The over is also worth considering if you believe Schager and Hawaii can reach their team total of 20.5 points.
Saturday CFB Pick:
Hawaii +21 (-110)
With the stage set for an exciting late-night showdown, fans can expect a thrilling game filled with explosive plays and strategic battles on both sides of the ball.