John Healy’s Insights on the Boston Bruins’ Struggles
This week, during a Zoom call, John Healy, the Chief Operating Officer of Clear Sight Analytics, shared a revealing screen that highlighted the Boston Bruins’ current performance metrics. As he navigated through a leaguewide chart detailing high-danger expected goals for and against at five-on-five play, a glaring issue emerged: the Bruins’ expected-goals-for rate of 0.85 per 48 minutes was cut off from view. This statistic, which excludes special-teams play, paints a stark picture of the team’s offensive struggles.
Healy’s immediate reaction was telling. “The Bruins don’t even come into play here,” he remarked, prompting a switch to full-screen mode. The implications of this data are significant; being ranked as the No. 32 team in the league is never a good sign, especially when trailing even the winless San Jose Sharks, who have an expected goals-for rate of 1.12 per 48 minutes.
The Seven-Game Sample Size
Throughout the call, Healy emphasized the limitations of analyzing a mere seven-game sample size. While it’s possible that the Bruins are still finding their rhythm, the numbers suggest otherwise. In their recent matchup against the Nashville Predators, the Bruins suffered a 4-0 defeat despite leading in expected goals, 3.10 to 2.42. This contradiction raises questions about the team’s ability to convert opportunities into actual goals.
Clear Sight Analytics has tracked various data points that reinforce the notion that the Bruins’ performance has been subpar. The team has averaged 16 all-situations expected goals for and 19.89 against, indicating a troubling trend. While they have scored above expectation (20 goals, excluding empty-netters), they have also saved below expectation, highlighting a significant imbalance.
Goaltending Woes
A critical area of concern for the Bruins is their goaltending situation. As of Wednesday, Jeremy Swayman ranked No. 22 among goalies with at least 74 chances faced, with a goals saved above expectation of minus-0.27. This statistic reflects a goalie still adjusting to the NHL pace after missing all of training camp. Fans and analysts alike remain hopeful that Swayman will return to form and rejoin the league’s elite.
In contrast, Joonas Korpisalo, the former Ottawa Senator, has struggled even more, ranking No. 59 with a goals saved above expectation of minus-2.84. His performance has been underwhelming, especially considering he is coming off a season marked by poor statistics. Korpisalo’s $3 million average annual value contract adds pressure, as he finds himself at the top of a list of undesirable goalie contracts.
Offensive Deficiencies
The most glaring issue for the Bruins, however, is their lack of offensive production. They currently rank worst in the league for high-danger expected five-on-five goals in two categories and sit at No. 28 in a third. This lack of offensive threat is alarming, particularly for a team with high expectations.
The performance of the Bruins’ top line, featuring Pavel Zacha, Elias Lindholm, and David Pastrňák, has also been disappointing. Being on the ice for only three high-danger chances for and eight against is simply not acceptable for a line expected to lead the charge. In response, Coach Jim Montgomery made the decision to shuffle the lineup, moving Zacha off the top line in favor of veteran Brad Marchand against the Predators.
Underperforming Key Players
The struggles are not limited to the top line; several highly compensated players have also underperformed. Names like Charlie McAvoy, Charlie Coyle, Nikita Zadorov, Hampus Lindholm, and Brandon Carlo have all found themselves in negative territory regarding expected plus-minus on high- and mid-danger chances. These players, who began the season with significant responsibilities, have not met expectations, further compounding the Bruins’ issues.
The Path Forward
Despite their current 3-3-1 record, the Bruins’ performance metrics raise questions about sustainability. Their high-danger shooting percentages rank No. 3 at five-on-five and best in settled offensive-zone situations, but these numbers are unlikely to hold up over a full season. The fourth line, featuring Johnny Beecher, Mark Kastelic, and Cole Koepke, is also expected to face challenges as the season progresses.
Additionally, the Bruins have benefitted from their opponents’ poor shooting percentages, ranking No. 27 in five-on-five and No. 30 off the rush. As the season unfolds, it’s likely that more shots will find the back of the net against them.
Montgomery acknowledged the team’s struggles, stating, “Right now, some guys haven’t had any offensive success. Usually, you’re trying to be perfect. When you try to be perfect, instead of trusting your instincts, passing tends to go awry.”
Looking ahead, the Bruins face a challenging schedule, including a matchup against the 5-2-0 Dallas Stars and a rematch with the Toronto Maple Leafs, their first-round opponent from last season. The road to improvement will be a difficult one, and fans will be watching closely to see how the team responds.