The Shifting Landscape of College Sports: The Pac-12’s Exodus and Its Impact on Group of Five Leagues
The college sports world has been in a state of upheaval over the past year, particularly within the Pac-12 Conference. As several prominent teams have opted to leave the conference, the reasons behind these decisions are multifaceted, with financial incentives and lucrative media deals playing a pivotal role. The fallout from these departures is not limited to the Pac-12; it has begun to ripple through the Group of Five (G5) leagues, leaving the remaining teams in the Pac-12 with limited options but a potential path forward.
The Pac-12 Exodus: Who Left and Why?
The Pac-12 has seen a significant exodus of teams, with powerhouse programs like USC and UCLA heading to the Big Ten, while Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah have chosen to join the Big 12. Additionally, Cal and Stanford have made the move to the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). This mass migration has left only two teams—Washington State and Oregon State—remaining in what some are now calling the "Pac-2."
The driving force behind these moves has been the pursuit of better media deals and financial stability. The Big Ten and SEC have secured lucrative contracts that far exceed what the Pac-12 could offer, prompting teams to seek greener pastures. The departure of these teams has not only diminished the Pac-12’s stature but has also raised questions about its future viability as a conference.
The New Additions: G5 Teams Joining the Pac-12
In response to the departures, the Pac-12 has announced the addition of five teams from the Mountain West: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State, and San Diego State. These teams will officially join the Pac-12 starting in the 2026 season. This move is significant as it aims to stabilize the conference and restore some of its lost prestige.
The Pac-12’s officials are optimistic that the new media deals they can negotiate will surpass those of the Mountain West, which could be a key factor in attracting these new members. However, the Pac-12’s status as an autonomous league—one that had more influence in NCAA decisions and received greater financial benefits from the College Football Playoff (CFP)—is now uncertain. The conference’s ability to regain that status remains a topic of speculation.
The AAC’s Stance: Memphis, USF, UTSA, and Tulane Stay Put
While the Pac-12 was eyeing potential additions from the American Athletic Conference (AAC), several key programs have publicly recommitted to the AAC. Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, and UTSA have all decided to remain in their current conference, which significantly hampers the Pac-12’s expansion efforts. These schools are located in lucrative markets and have demonstrated competitiveness, making them attractive targets for the Pac-12. However, the travel costs and logistical challenges of such a move likely played a role in their decision to stay.
Mountain West’s Stability: UNLV and Air Force Remain
In a similar vein, UNLV and Air Force have also opted to remain in the Mountain West, despite interest from both the Pac-12 and AAC. Air Force was considered a strong candidate for the AAC, especially given its proximity to Denver and the potential for a more stable environment. However, the Falcons, along with UNLV and other Mountain West teams, have chosen to stay put, indicating a desire for stability amid the chaos of conference realignment.
Legal Battles: Pac-12 vs. Mountain West
As the Pac-12 navigates its new reality, it has also initiated legal action against the Mountain West regarding poaching penalties. The lawsuit, which could exceed $50 million, stems from the Mountain West’s recruitment of teams that the Pac-12 is now trying to attract. The Pac-12 argues that it was forced into a scheduling alliance with the Mountain West due to the rapid departures of its teams, claiming antitrust violations in the process.
The Future of Scheduling: No Extension for the Pac-12/Mountain West Alliance
The Pac-12 and Mountain West have decided not to extend their scheduling agreement beyond the current season. This decision comes after Oregon State and Washington State secured a scheduling deal with the Mountain West for the upcoming year. However, both schools will not be eligible for the Mountain West Championship, further complicating their future.
The Implications for Group of Five Teams
The shifting dynamics within the Pac-12 have significant implications for Group of Five teams. The AAC has expressed interest in adding the remaining Pac-12 schools, but those discussions have stalled. The AAC’s leadership has indicated that they are not keen on the G5 label and are looking to position themselves as a stronger conference in the wake of recent changes.
The College Football Playoff: New Rules and G5 Opportunities
The College Football Playoff has also undergone changes, moving to a 5+7 format starting in 2024. This new structure guarantees that at least one Group of Five team will qualify for the playoffs, although the previous system allowed for two automatic qualifiers. The adjustment reflects the evolving landscape of college football and the need to adapt to the realities of conference realignment.
The Remaining Pac-12 Teams: A Challenging Path Ahead
For Washington State and Oregon State, the future is uncertain. While they can still compete for a spot in the CFP, their lack of a conference championship opportunity complicates their path. The two schools have entered into a scheduling alliance with the Mountain West, but without the chance to compete for a title, their playoff aspirations are significantly hindered.
Conclusion: A New Era in College Sports
As the college sports landscape continues to evolve, the ramifications of the Pac-12’s upheaval will be felt across the entire spectrum of college athletics. The decisions made by these conferences and their member schools will shape the future of college football, particularly for Group of Five teams seeking to elevate their status in an increasingly competitive environment. The next few years will be critical as these institutions navigate the complexities of conference realignment, media deals, and the quest for national prominence.