NFL Moneyline Picks: Underdogs Roar into Week 3
The 2024-25 NFL season has kicked off with a bang, showcasing a surprising trend: underdogs are making waves. As we head into Week 3, the excitement is palpable, especially for those who have been following the underdog narrative. With injuries impacting many teams, the landscape of the league has shifted, leading to unexpected outcomes. Heading into Week 3, underdogs stood at 12-20 straight up, but the Jets’ recent victory has added another win for the favorites. However, the trend of big favorites losing outright has been a common theme, making this an intriguing week for bettors.
If you followed last week’s analysis, you might be celebrating the success of the underdogs. My SBD formula delivered a solid performance, going 4-4 on upset picks in Week 2, yielding a profit of 4.6 units. For those who placed $100 bets on each pick, that translates to a $460 gain. Including the Thursday Night Football pick, where the Bills upset the Dolphins, the total profit could have reached $585. My personal record was more modest at 1-1, but I still managed a small profit of 0.4 units. As we gear up for Week 3, I’m excited to share two more NFL moneyline picks, focusing solely on underdogs poised for victory.
Week 3 NFL Moneyline Picks
Expert NFL Moneyline Picks
- Panthers over Raiders (+225 at FanDuel)
- Cowboys over Ravens (-105 at ESPN Bet)
Computer NFL Moneyline Picks
- Bears over Colts (-105 at bet365)
- Chargers over Steelers (+132 at FanDuel)
- Vikings over Texans (+115 at BetMGM)
- Packers over Titans (+125 at ESPN Bet)
- Cardinals over Lions (+130 at ESPN Bet)
Note: The NFL moneyline odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing. Be sure to check our NFL odds page for the latest updates.
Panthers Over Raiders
I’ll admit, picking the Panthers feels a bit risky, reminiscent of my ill-fated Week 1 Giants pick. However, I believe the switch from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton at quarterback could provide the spark Carolina desperately needs. Young’s struggles have weighed heavily on the team, but Dalton’s experience might help the offense find its rhythm.
The Raiders, fresh off an upset win, may be riding high, but I think we’re overestimating them. Their defense has been porous against the run, ranking second-last in yards per carry allowed (6.1), while their own ground game has been abysmal, sitting at the bottom with just 2.5 yards per carry. If the Panthers can stifle the Raiders’ rushing attack, they’ll force Gardner Minshew to carry the load, which could lead to a close, field-goal game. At +225 odds, the value here is too enticing to ignore.
Pick: Panthers moneyline (+225 at FanDuel)
Cowboys Over Ravens
The Ravens’ recent performance has raised red flags, and I’m not convinced they’ll bounce back this week. Their loss to the Raiders was more about Baltimore’s shortcomings than Las Vegas’s prowess. The Ravens are struggling with personnel issues on offense, particularly along the offensive line, which has hindered their ability to sustain drives.
Derrick Henry, while a talented player, hasn’t found his footing in this offense, and Mark Andrews’ presence has complicated things for other playmakers. The Ravens need to either improve their offensive line dramatically or rethink their approach to utilize their explosive talents effectively.
On the other hand, the Cowboys, despite a rough outing against the Saints, have the potential to rebound at home. Micah Parsons is a game-changer who could exploit the Ravens’ offensive line vulnerabilities. I see the Cowboys taking advantage of Baltimore’s struggles, making them a solid pick this week.
Pick: Cowboys moneyline (-105 at ESPN Bet)
Additional Insights
While my SBD formula has identified five moneyline picks for Week 3, I’m excited to see how these underdog selections pan out. The unpredictability of the NFL is part of what makes it so thrilling, and with the current trend favoring underdogs, this week could be another opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the chaos.
For those looking to place bets, remember to check the latest odds and consider the analysis behind each pick. The NFL season is still young, and as we’ve seen, anything can happen on any given Sunday. Happy betting!