The Simplicity of NFL Moneyline Betting
When it comes to betting on the NFL, few options are as straightforward as the moneyline. Unlike point spreads or over/under bets, the moneyline simply requires you to pick which team will win the game outright. This simplicity makes it an attractive option for both novice and seasoned bettors alike. With the 2024-25 NFL season shaping up to be a thrilling one, especially for underdog fans, now is the perfect time to dive into moneyline betting.
The Underdog Phenomenon in 2024
As we enter Week 5 of the NFL season, the trend of underdogs performing well continues to dominate the landscape. So far, favorites have only managed a 38-27 straight-up record through the first four weeks, including Thursday Night Football of Week 5. This underdog-friendly environment means that savvy bettors can find significant value in picking the right teams to win outright. If you’ve been following the right underdogs on the moneyline, your bankroll could be in great shape!
My Betting Track Record
Last week, I went 1-1 on my upset picks, resulting in a modest profit of 0.26 units. Overall, I have successfully turned a profit in three out of the first four weeks of the season with my NFL moneyline picks. However, my score-predicting formula had a rough outing, going 1-4 and losing 2.74 units. Despite this setback, it remains in the green for the year, currently up 0.36 units after a shaky start to Week 5 with the Buccaneers.
Week 5 NFL Moneyline Picks
As we look ahead to Week 5, the list of potential upsets is shorter than in previous weeks, but I feel confident about the moneyline picks I’m presenting. Below are the underdogs I believe have a strong chance of winning outright:
Expert NFL Moneyline Picks
- Colts over Jaguars (+143 at Caesars)
- Bills over Texans (+100 at ESPN Bet)
- Saints over Chiefs (+215 at FanDuel)
Interestingly, I’m only placing a bet on one underdog this week, while my SBD formula has identified three potential upsets. This alignment between my picks and the formula gives me added confidence in the selections.
Analyzing the Colts vs. Jaguars Matchup
Let’s take a closer look at my lone upset pick for Week 5: the Indianapolis Colts defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars. Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Colts, I believe they have a solid chance of coming out on top. While the absence of star running back Jonathan Taylor is a concern, it’s a factor we anticipated heading into this week.
If rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is able to play, I expect the Colts to lean heavily on their ground game. However, if veteran Joe Flacco takes the reins, I anticipate he will exploit the Jaguars’ 31st-ranked pass defense, potentially leading to a comfortable victory by two scores.
The Jaguars have struggled to find their rhythm this season. Despite ranking second in the NFL with an impressive 5.7 yards per carry, they have run the ball the fifth-fewest times in the league. This lack of commitment to their running game has contributed to their dismal third-down conversion rate of just 25%, ranking them third-worst in the league. Furthermore, their defense has been unable to get off the field, allowing opponents to convert 42.6% of their third downs, placing them 24th in that category.
While I believe the Jaguars will improve as the season progresses, I can’t overlook the opportunity to bet against them while they’re struggling. This pick is more about fading the Jaguars than it is about backing the Colts.
Final Thoughts on Betting Strategy
For those looking to maximize their betting potential this week, it’s essential to stay informed about the latest odds and trends. The NFL moneyline odds listed above were the best available at the time of writing, but it’s always wise to check for the latest lines to ensure you’re getting the best value.
If you’re interested in exploring moneyline picks for all 13 games this Sunday and Monday, my SBD formula has identified favorites winning in every matchup except for the three underdogs mentioned. However, I would advise caution with certain favorites, particularly the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears, as their performances have been inconsistent.
In summary, the NFL moneyline offers a straightforward and potentially lucrative betting strategy, especially in a season filled with underdog victories. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting, understanding the dynamics of each matchup can significantly enhance your betting experience.