Fresno State vs. Nevada Prediction: Friday Night Showdown
As the college football season heats up, the Fresno State Bulldogs (3-3, 1-1 MWC) are set to clash with the Nevada Wolf Pack (3-4, 0-1 MWC) in a pivotal Mountain West matchup on Friday night, October 18, 2024. The game will kick off at 10:30 PM ET at Mackay Stadium in Reno, and fans can catch the action live on CBS Sports Network.
This matchup is crucial for both teams as they look to improve their standings in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State is eager to break a two-game losing streak, having recently fallen to Washington State and UNLV. Meanwhile, Nevada is riding high after a surprising upset victory over Oregon State and is looking to inch closer to bowl eligibility.
Current Odds and Betting Lines
Oddsmakers have made Fresno State a 3-point favorite on the road, with the total set at 49.5 points. The line has remained steady, but the total has seen significant movement, dropping from an initial 52.5 points. This shift indicates a trend toward the under, reflecting the betting public’s perception of both teams’ offensive capabilities.
Betting Odds Overview:
- Spread: Fresno State -3.0 (-105) | Nevada +3.0 (-115)
- Moneyline: Fresno State -140 | Nevada +120
- Total: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
Fresno State’s Season So Far
Fresno State entered the season with high hopes but has struggled to find consistency. Their victories have come against teams like Sacramento State, New Mexico, and New Mexico State, but they have faltered against tougher opponents. The Bulldogs’ recent losses have raised questions about their offensive and defensive capabilities.
Offensive Performance: Quarterback Mikey Keene has thrown for 1,576 yards and eight touchdowns this season. However, his eight interceptions have been a significant concern, highlighting a tendency for turnovers. The ground game has been particularly weak, ranking 115th nationally in rush success rate, which has hampered their ability to control the clock and establish a balanced attack.
Defensive Struggles: On the defensive side, Fresno State has been inconsistent. They rank 41st in pass success rate allowed but have struggled against the run, giving up an average of 4.5 yards per carry. Over their last three games, the Bulldogs have allowed an alarming 35 points and 410 yards per game, raising concerns about their ability to stop opposing offenses.
Nevada’s Recent Form
Nevada started the season slowly but has shown significant improvement, particularly on offense. The Wolf Pack are averaging nearly 41 points and 457 yards per game over their last three outings, showcasing a dynamic and explosive offensive unit.
Key Player: Dual-threat quarterback Brendon Lewis has been a revelation for Nevada, accumulating 1,645 total yards and 13 touchdowns this season. His ability to make plays with both his arm and legs has made him a nightmare for opposing defenses. Lewis leads the Mountain West in completion percentage (67.1) and boasts one of the highest quarterback ratings in the conference.
Betting Trends: Nevada has been a solid bet as an underdog this season, going 3-0 against the spread (ATS) in that role. Their recent upset of Oregon State as 3-point home underdogs has added to their momentum, making them a dangerous opponent for Fresno State.
Predictions and Picks
Given Fresno State’s talent advantage, they are favored to win. However, their recent struggles and defensive inconsistencies raise red flags. Nevada’s offense is firing on all cylinders, and they have the momentum from their recent victory.
Predictions:
- Nevada +3 (-115): The Wolf Pack have shown they can compete with anyone, especially at home. With their recent form and the Bulldogs’ defensive issues, taking Nevada to cover the spread seems like a smart play.
- Under 49.5 Points (-110): Despite both teams having offensive potential, the trend of betting on the under has been strong, particularly in Nevada’s recent home games against Fresno State.
Head-to-Head History
Historically, Fresno State has had the upper hand, winning six of the last ten meetings outright. However, Nevada holds a slight edge in covering the spread, going 5-4-1 ATS in that span. In their most recent encounter, Fresno State won decisively, 27-9, but Nevada managed to cover a hefty +25.5 spread.
Recent Meetings:
| Date | Result | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/30/23 | Fresno State 27, Nevada 9 | NEV +25.5 | Under 50.5 |
| 11/19/22 | Fresno State 41, Nevada 14 | FRES -22 | Over 54 |
| 10/23/21 | Nevada 34, Fresno State 32 | NEV +3 | Over 64.5 |
| 12/5/20 | Nevada 37, Fresno State 26 | NEV -6 | Over 60 |
| 11/23/19 | Fresno State 35, Nevada 28 | FRES -14.5 | Over 52 |
Conclusion
As the Fresno State Bulldogs and Nevada Wolf Pack prepare for their Friday night showdown, the stakes are high for both teams. With Fresno State looking to regain their footing and Nevada aiming to build on their recent success, fans can expect an exciting matchup filled with drama and intensity. Whether you’re betting on the game or simply tuning in to watch, this Mountain West clash promises to deliver.