How Much Has the Outlook for the College Football Season Changed Since the Preseason?
As the college football season progresses, the landscape of predictions and expectations shifts dramatically. What seemed like a clear path for certain teams and players in August has morphed into a complex tapestry of surprises and upsets. The Athletic’s consensus midseason national championship pick, Texas, received zero votes in the preseason, while the Heisman Trophy favorite is now a running back from a Group of 5 team. This article delves into how the outlook for the 2024 college football season has evolved since the preseason.
Who Will Win the National Championship?
The most significant change in predictions comes in the national championship outlook. In a recent survey of 30 writers and editors from The Athletic, 50% of voters now believe Texas will secure its first national championship since 2005. This is a remarkable shift from the preseason, where the Longhorns garnered no votes. Ohio State, the preseason favorite with over half of the votes, now sits in second place with 11 votes, despite suffering a loss to Oregon, which has only received two votes after three in the preseason.
The consensus among the writers indicates a strong belief in Texas’s capabilities. The Longhorns have showcased a well-rounded team, ranking 11th in offensive yards per play and first in defensive yards per play allowed. Their dominant performances against Michigan and Oklahoma have solidified their status as a national contender.
The Case for Texas
One voter highlighted Texas’s completeness as a team, noting their ability to maintain performance even when starting quarterback Quinn Ewers was sidelined. The depth and talent on the roster suggest that Texas has not yet reached its peak, making them a formidable opponent as the season progresses.
The Case for Ohio State
Despite their recent loss, Ohio State remains a strong contender. One writer expressed confidence in the Buckeyes, citing their competitive spirit and the potential for a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten title game. The team’s defensive struggles are a concern, but the belief in their ability to adapt and overcome challenges persists.
Other Contenders
Clemson and Georgia each received one vote in the national championship predictions. Voters pointed to Clemson’s resurgence after a rocky start and Georgia’s consistent talent and depth as reasons for their inclusion in the conversation.
Playoff Predictions
When it comes to the College Football Playoff, the predictions have also solidified. A total of 18 teams received votes to make the 12-team playoff, with Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Penn State, and Miami being unanimous picks. Oregon, despite being left off one ballot, is still viewed as a strong contender, alongside Georgia and Clemson.
Interestingly, teams like Utah and Florida State, which were heavily favored in the preseason, have fallen off the radar entirely. Utah, which had a 71.4% prediction rate in the preseason, is now absent from any midseason ballots, reflecting the unpredictable nature of college football.
Automatic Playoff Bids
The automatic playoff bids are also shaping up differently than expected. In the ACC, Miami and Clemson are the only teams receiving votes, a stark contrast to the five teams that garnered attention in the preseason. The Big 12 has seen a similar shift, with Iowa State and BYU emerging as surprise contenders, while Utah has dropped out of contention.
In the SEC, Texas has become the overwhelming favorite, receiving 96.7% of the votes for the conference championship. This is a significant change from the preseason, where Alabama and Georgia were seen as the dominant forces.
Heisman Trophy Race
The Heisman Trophy race has also seen a dramatic shift. Ashton Jeanty, a running back from Boise State, has emerged as the favorite with 40% of the votes. This is a notable change from the preseason, where eight players received votes. Jeanty’s impressive stats, including 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns through six games, have made him a standout candidate.
Other notable players in the Heisman conversation include Cam Ward from Washington State and Dillon Gabriel from Oklahoma, both of whom have led their teams to undefeated records. Travis Hunter, Colorado’s two-way star, has also received recognition, showcasing the diversity of talent in this year’s race.
Conclusion
The college football season is a dynamic and ever-changing landscape, with predictions and expectations shifting rapidly as teams compete and players emerge. The midseason outlook reflects a blend of surprises, with Texas rising to prominence and unexpected contenders making their mark. As the season unfolds, fans and analysts alike will continue to watch closely, eager to see how these narratives develop.