Touchdown Scorer Props for NFL Week 4: Best Value Picks
As the NFL season heats up, so does the excitement surrounding touchdown scorer props. With Week 4 just around the corner, bettors are eager to find value in the anytime touchdown scorer market. After a successful Week 3, where I finished with a 5-5 record and a profit of 0.98 units, I’m back with eight picks that I believe present the best value for this week’s slate of games.
The Strategy Behind Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Before diving into the picks, it’s essential to understand why I focus on anytime touchdown scorer props rather than first touchdown scorer bets. The unpredictability of who will score first can be a gamble too far, while anytime TD bets offer a more favorable chance of hitting, especially when you analyze player usage and matchups.
My Top Eight Anytime TD Scorer Picks for Week 4
1. Malik Nabers (+137 at bet365)
The New York Giants’ offense is heavily reliant on rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who has been a target magnet with 12 and 18 targets in his last two games. With three touchdowns in that span, Nabers is poised to find the end zone again. The Giants may struggle to run against a tough Cowboys defense, making Nabers a prime candidate for a touchdown through the air.
2. Aaron Jones (+130 at DraftKings)
Aaron Jones is set for a revenge game against the Green Bay Packers, where he has been a significant part of the Vikings’ offense. With at least 14 touches in every game and a favorable matchup against a Packers defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry, Jones is likely to find himself in scoring position, especially in the red zone.
3. Zack Moss (+100 at Caesars)
Zack Moss has emerged as the lead back for the Bengals, particularly in red zone situations. With the Panthers allowing the most rushing touchdowns in the league, Moss is in a prime position to score. His odds at +100 are appealing, especially considering his role in the Bengals’ offense.
4. Nico Collins (+120 at bet365)
Nico Collins is becoming a focal point of the Texans’ offense, with 28 targets through three games. After a disappointing outing against the Vikings, expect Houston to bounce back against Jacksonville, with Collins likely to see plenty of opportunities to score, especially if they find themselves in a high-scoring affair.
5. Chris Godwin (+185 at DraftKings)
Chris Godwin has scored in every game this season, yet his odds remain enticing at +185. With the Eagles struggling against the pass, Godwin is likely to exploit mismatches, particularly in the slot. His consistent target share makes him a solid bet to find the end zone again.
6. Saquon Barkley (-135 at DraftKings)
Saquon Barkley continues to be a focal point of the Giants’ offense, and at -135, his odds are still favorable. With five touchdowns already this season and a potential increase in touches due to injuries to key receivers, Barkley is a strong candidate to score against a defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry.
7. Marvin Harrison Jr. (+120 at bet365)
Marvin Harrison Jr. is quickly becoming a star in the Cardinals’ offense, with three touchdowns in his last two games. Facing a Commanders defense that has struggled against the pass, Harrison’s increasing target share makes him a prime candidate to find the end zone again.
8. Derrick Henry (-138 at bet365)
Derrick Henry’s workload has increased significantly, and with the Ravens looking to control the game against the Bills, expect them to lean heavily on their star running back. The Bills have been vulnerable against the run, allowing 4.7 yards per carry, making Henry a strong bet to score in this matchup.
Betting Strategy and Considerations
For each of these picks, I’m placing a half-unit bet, with the exception of Zack Moss, where I’m going for a full unit due to the favorable odds. As always, player injuries and game-time decisions can impact these bets, so it’s crucial to stay updated on the latest news.
For those looking to place bets, be sure to shop around for the best odds, as they can vary significantly between sportsbooks. Additionally, keep an eye on the Monday Night Football matchup between the Seahawks and Lions, as I plan to add a play depending on Kenneth Walker III’s availability.
Final Thoughts
With the NFL season in full swing, Week 4 presents an exciting opportunity for bettors to capitalize on anytime touchdown scorer props. By analyzing player performance, matchups, and trends, you can make informed decisions that enhance your betting experience. Good luck, and may your bets find the end zone!