The New York Yankees and Emmanuel Clase: A Tale of October Surprises
On Friday night, the New York Yankees achieved a remarkable feat for the second consecutive game: they managed to score multiple runs off Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase. While the Yankees’ efforts in Game 3 fell short due to the Guardians’ own late-game heroics, they emerged victorious in Game 4, putting them just one win away from clinching the pennant and securing a trip to the World Series. This unexpected turn of events has raised eyebrows, particularly regarding Clase, who has found himself in the midst of a surprising slump during the playoffs.
Emmanuel Clase’s Regular Season Dominance
During the regular season, Emmanuel Clase was nothing short of spectacular. He pitched 74 1/3 innings, allowing only five earned runs, which made him one of the most reliable closers in Major League Baseball. However, as the postseason unfolded, Clase’s performance took a sharp downturn. After Friday’s game, he had surrendered eight earned runs in just seven innings pitched in October, with four of those runs coming in a mere 24-hour span. This drastic change has left fans and analysts alike questioning what could be causing this sudden decline.
The Cutter Mutation: A Pitching Puzzle
One of the most significant factors contributing to Clase’s struggles appears to be the performance of his signature pitch: the cutter. Throughout the regular season, Clase relied heavily on this pitch, using it approximately 77.8% of the time. However, during the postseason, that figure has dipped slightly to 75.7%. More importantly, the movement profile of his cutter has changed dramatically.
In the ALCS, Clase’s cutter has exhibited nearly two additional inches of horizontal break compared to his regular-season average. This increase in movement raises questions: Is this change intentional? Could it be a result of the heightened adrenaline that comes with playoff pressure? Or has Clase inadvertently altered his grip or release point, leading to this unexpected shift? While the exact cause remains unclear, it’s evident that this change in movement may be affecting his command, making it harder for him to locate the pitch effectively.
Altered Location Against Right-Handed Batters
Another notable trend in Clase’s pitching during the playoffs is his altered approach to right-handed batters. In the regular season, Clase preferred to locate his cutter on the inner half of the plate. This strategy allowed him to leverage the pitch’s natural movement to induce weak contact or swings and misses. However, in the ALCS, approximately one-third of his cutters thrown to righties have been located off the plate away, a significant increase from his regular-season percentage of 21.5%.
Moreover, Clase’s vertical location has also shifted. During the regular season, about 32.5% of his cutters ended up in the middle region of the strike zone, but that percentage has risen to 46.7% in the postseason. This change in both horizontal and vertical location could be contributing to the increased number of hits he has allowed, as batters are finding more favorable pitches to hit.
The Role of Bad Luck
While analyzing Clase’s struggles, it’s essential to consider the element of bad luck that can often plague pitchers in high-stakes situations. On Friday, for instance, Alex Verdugo hit a weak ground ball that shortstop Brayan Rocchio failed to handle, leading to an unearned run. Such instances highlight how small, seemingly inconsequential moments can snowball into significant outcomes in the postseason.
Examining Clase’s ball-tracking data reveals that his average exit velocity and launch angle have shifted during the playoffs. While batters hit an average of 86 mph with a launch angle of 2.4 degrees during the regular season, those numbers have changed to 84.8 mph and 8.5 degrees in the ALCS. This increase in launch angle suggests that hitters are finding it easier to elevate the ball against him, which can lead to more hits and runs allowed.
The Impact of Small Sample Sizes
It’s crucial to remember that the postseason is a small sample size, and fluctuations in performance can occur for various reasons. A couple of pitches here or there can dramatically alter a pitcher’s statistics and perceived effectiveness. For Clase, the combination of altered pitch movement, changes in location, and a sprinkle of bad luck has culminated in a challenging October.
As the Yankees continue their pursuit of a World Series title, all eyes will be on Emmanuel Clase. Will he be able to regain his regular-season form, or will the struggles that have plagued him in the playoffs continue? The answers may very well determine the outcome of the series and the fate of both the Yankees and the Guardians.